In Praise of Brute Force
My middle-schooler daughter loves Dungeons and Dragons. She, along with other players, co-DM1 an online version of the game.
She came to me with a question regarding a new game dynamic that she was considering. Here are its parameters:
- There shall be 30 days in a month
- There shall be two 12-hour periods per day
- As each period arrives, there shall be a 50% chance of bad weather
- During a period of bad weather, there shall be a 20% chance that an enemy NPC appears to attack your group
The question: Given the above rules, how many enemy NPCs can players expect to encounter in a month of play, and how would changing the various probabilities affect the outcome?
Although this is not a very difficult problem, I realized that in order to explain why multipyling numbers worked, I needed to explain the concepts of Expected Values and conditional probabilities. But I soon realized there was another way.
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Dungeon Master ↩

